Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline 3.5% in 2022, amid global uncertainty and weaker demand, according to IDC

NEEDHAM, Massachusetts, June 1, 2022 – According to a new International Data Corporation (IDC) Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker Worldwide forecast, smartphone shipments will decline 3.5% to 1.31 billion units in 2022. After three straight quarters of decline and growing challenges in both supply and demand, IDC has significantly lowered its 2022 forecast from to the previous projection of 1.6% growth. However, IDC expects this to be a short-term setback as the market recovers to achieve a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9% through 2026.

“The smartphone industry is facing increasing headwinds on many fronts: weakening demand, inflation, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and ongoing supply chain restrictions. However, the impact of China’s lockdowns, that have no clear end in sight, is much greater.” he said Nabila PopalIDC Research Director Mobile and consumer device trackers around the world. “The lockdowns affected global demand and supply simultaneously by reducing demand in the world’s largest market and tightening the bottleneck in an already challenged supply chain. As a result, many OEMs have reduced orders for this year, including Apple and Samsung However, Apple seems to be the least affected supplier due to greater control over its supply chain and because most of its customers in the high price segment are less influenced by macroeconomic problems such as inflation Barring further setbacks, we expect Hopefully these challenges will subside by the end of this year and the market will rebound in 2023 with 5% growth.”

“Current semiconductor supply issues will ease in the second half of 2022. On the SoC side, 4G SoC supply has been limited, but the market continues to shift towards 5G SoCs,” he said. Phil Solisresearch director at IDC’s Enabling technologies and semiconductors equipment. “The biggest problem has been the shortage of components like PMICs, display controllers, and discrete Wi-Fi chips. These semiconductors are being increased in capacity and are being manufactured on higher process nodes, and newer versions of Wi-Fi chips are being made.” Wi-Fi. with newer compute nodes. At the same time, demand is falling. Combined, these changes in supply and demand will bring the market more into balance.”

From a regional perspective, the largest decline in 2022 is expected to be in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), with shipments falling 22%. China is forecast to decline by 11.5% or about 38 million units, accounting for about 80% of the global reduction in shipment volume this year. Western Europe is expected to decline 1%, while most other regions will see positive growth this year, including Asia/Pacific (ex Japan and China) (APeJC) with 3% growth, the second largest region after China.

5G devices are expected to grow 25.5% year-over-year in 2022, accounting for 53% of new shipments with nearly 700 million devices and an average selling price (ASP) of $608. Volume expectations for this year were lowered significantly due to increased 5G product channel inventory in China and the overall downgrade in the market forecast. In the long term, 5G is expected to reach a 78% volume share in 2026 with an ASP of $440. By contrast, 4G ASP is expected to be $170 in 2022, falling to $113 by the end of the forecast period. There has been a slight increase in short-term ASPs across all devices due to shortages and increased cost of components and logistics. However, the trend will remain downward in the long term. Smartphone ASP will decrease from $402 in 2022 to $366 in 2026.

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About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the world’s leading provider of market intelligence, advisory services and events for the information technology, telecommunications and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,200 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise in technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry trends and opportunities in more than 110 countries. IDC’s insights and analysis help IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community make fact-based technology decisions and achieve their key business goals. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of the International Data Group (IDG), the world’s leading technology media, data and marketing services company. For more information about IDC, visit Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC Y LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and information.

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